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Weekly Financial Summary 2022-10-17

Date: 2022-10-17
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Financial attention






► Xinhua News Agency: It has been ten years since the 18th National Congress was held. In the past ten years, we have experienced three major events of great practical and far-reaching historical significance to the cause of the Party and the people. First, we have welcomed the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China; second, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era; third, we have completed the historical task of overcoming poverty and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and achieved the first centenary goal. This is a historic victory won by the Communist Party of China and the Chinese people in their united struggle, a historic victory that shines through the annals of the development of the Chinese nation, and a historic victory that has far-reaching impact on the world.




► Xinhua News Agency: From now on, the central task of the Communist Party of China is to unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups in building a strong socialist modernization country in an all-round way, achieve the second century goal, and comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese style modernization. We should achieve, safeguard and develop the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people, firmly grasp the most immediate and realistic interests of the people, and adhere to doing our best.




Macroeconomy




1. Xinhua News Agency: It is a strategic requirement for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way to achieve the centennial goal of building the army on schedule and accelerate the building of the people's army into a world-class army. In addition, we should strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and effort, but retain the option of taking all necessary measures. The complete reunification of the motherland must and can be achieved.




2. Securities Times: It was learned from the regulatory authorities that in order to further improve the convenience of foreign investment in A-shares, the CSRC is studying and formulating two policies for foreign capital to apply a specific short-term trading system, namely, allowing eligible overseas public funds to calculate the number of securities held by domestic public funds according to their products, and exempting HKSCC from applying a specific short-term trading system. Relevant ideas and measures have been basically clarified, and relevant procedures are being implemented. When conditions are ripe, they will be announced and implemented according to law.




3. Japanese Finance Minister Junichi Suzuki: On the foreign exchange market, the yen exchange rate once fell below 148.5 yen to 1 dollar, saying that the idea of taking resolute measures in the case of excessive volatility has not changed. The Japanese government and the central bank bought yen and sold dollars in September to intervene in the exchange rate, but then the yen accelerated its depreciation. Once again, the Japanese authorities have shown their willingness to intervene again.




4. German Prime Minister Wolfgang Scholtz: He once again expressed his support for the enlargement of the European Union. Ukraine, Moldova, Balkan countries and Georgia, which are expected to become candidates for membership, must meet the criteria for membership. Europe must strengthen its own capabilities and call for the promotion of European defense. At the same time, the EU needs to reform the 'principle of consistency'.




5. Kazaks of the European Central Bank: It is appropriate for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in October and by 50 or 75 basis points in December. There is no reason for the European Central Bank to suspend raising interest rates after December. The interest rate needs to be raised significantly this year, and the pace of interest rate increase can be slowed down later. The ECB no longer has to maintain a large balance sheet.





Real estate developments




1. China Construction Bank: By the end of September, the balance of its personal housing loans had reached 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan over the end of last year, which strongly supported the rigid and improving housing needs of residents; It is planned to invest 30 billion yuan to set up a housing lease fund to explore a new real estate development model that combines rent and purchase.







Stock market inventory




1. CITIC Securities: The domestic economy and policy expectations are gradually clear, and it is expected that the year-on-year economic improvement will continue to the second quarter of next year; The pressure of interest rate hikes and rapid RMB depreciation in Europe and the United States has passed, and the negative impact on the market has gradually weakened; There is continuity in stock capital transfer and incremental capital entry; The A-share comprehensive repair market has started and is expected to last for several months. During this period, there may be repeated disturbances, but the repair trend will not change; It is suggested to continue to adhere to balanced allocation, and actively layout industries with valuation switching and boom turning points.




2. Haitong Securities: Drawing on history, the upward inflection point of credit data and the bottom of A-share appear successively, in the order of loan balance, M2, and social financing stock>A-share ≥ mid and long-term loan balance. This social finance bottomed out on a year-on-year basis in October 2021, and long-term loans began to pick up on a year-on-year basis in mid September 2022, verifying that the current bottom area of A-share is solid. The implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and ensuring the delivery of real estate is expected to promote the stock market to usher in the second wave of opportunities in the year in the fourth quarter, and the new energy, digital economy and other growth sectors are more resilient.




3. Securities Times: More than 310 listed companies in the two markets disclosed the third quarter performance forecast. In terms of the type of performance forecast, 288 companies forecast. Among them, 183 companies 'increased in advance', 78 companies 'increased slightly', 19 companies 'turned losses', 8 companies 'continued to gain', and the expected rate of happiness exceeded 90%. From the perspective of the largest increase in net profit, 9 companies, including Jiu'an Medical, Brothers Technology and Jialinjie, expect their net profits to increase by more than 1000% year on year, excluding companies that turn losses around.




4. China Fund News: With the announcement of the first five public offerings that they intend to apply for the raising of infrastructure REITs and purchase new infrastructure projects, the pilot public offering REITs has been in full swing in the past two years. Relevant persons in charge said that they were carrying out asset screening, due diligence, raising application, regulatory approval, communication and feedback, holding shareholders' meetings, issuing and listing of raised shares, delivery of newly acquired assets, information disclosure and other related preparations in accordance with the raising requirements.




5. 21 Caijing: The annual transaction size of the global private secondary market has increased from $24 billion in 2011 to $130 billion in 2021, and is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2030. Xie Jiayin, director of Kohler Capital Investment, said that he had seen many trading opportunities in China recently and was able to acquire high-quality assets at an attractive valuation.




6. Securities Times: In recent years, with the continuous expansion of two-way opening of China's capital market, foreign capital has become one of the important participants in the A-share market. By the end of September, the circulating market value of A shares held by foreign investors had reached 2.77 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.35% of the total circulating market value of A shares. From January to September, the accumulated net inflow of Shanghai Shenzhen Stock Connect into the A-share market was more than 52 billion yuan.




7. Guizhou Maotai: the net profit in the first three quarters was 44.4 billion yuan, up 19.14% year on year; The net profit in the third quarter was 14.606 billion yuan, up 15.81% year on year. From the beginning of the year to the end of the report period, the tax free revenue of liquor was 8.462 billion yuan through the 'i Moutai' digital marketing platform.




8. CNOOC: The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters is expected to be 107.8 billion yuan to 109.8 billion yuan, an increase of 104% to 108% year on year. The Company seized the favorable opportunity of oil price rise, continued to increase exploration and development efforts, achieved positive results in increasing reserves and production, improving quality and efficiency, and oil and gas production hit a new high in the same period of history.




9. Great Wall Motors: It is planned to use its own funds to repurchase 20 million to 40 million shares of the company in the form of centralized competitive trading, with the repurchase price not exceeding 45 yuan/share, and the upper limit of the proposed repurchase funds is 1.8 billion yuan.




10. Focus Media: It plans to buy back shares with a price of no more than 7 yuan/share, and the total amount of buyback funds will be no less than 400 million yuan and no more than 800 million yuan.




11. Subscription of new shares: A total of 7 new shares were issued this week, including 1 new share on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 3 new shares on the Growth Enterprise Board, 1 new share on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 2 new shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. They are Weice Technology, Yihe Jiaye, Hongbo Pharmaceutical, Tianshan Electronics, Yunzhongma, and Meineng Energy.




12. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 61 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.489 billion shares and a market value of 71.506 billion yuan. Among them, Keboda ranked No. 1 in the lifting list with 24.124 billion yuan, Zhuhai Guanyu and CNOOC ranked No. 2 and No. 3 respectively with 14.197 billion yuan and 4.192 billion yuan.






Wealth Focus




1. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo: The SAR government will hold the Hong Kong Financial Technology Week from October 31 to November 4 to issue a policy declaration on the development of virtual assets in Hong Kong. The policy declaration will clearly express the government's position, show the global industry the vision of promoting Hong Kong to become an international virtual asset center, and explore the commitment and determination of financial innovation with the global asset industry.




2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. The performance of 'lithium mine duo' has exploded, and the lithium battery industry chain has enjoyed a collective carnival. How does the lithium battery industry chain perform as the price of upstream lithium resources soars? Is there a possibility that the supply increment may not be as expected? What are the main directions of lithium battery industry? Financial friends, please go to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # lithium king battle






Industry observation




1. CCTV News: It was learned from China Storage Grain Corporation that Jiangsu and Anhui provinces have taken the lead in launching the minimum purchase price of autumn grain in 2022. This year, the minimum purchase prices of medium and late indica rice and japonica rice were 1.29 yuan/kg and 1.31 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.01 yuan/kg year on year. CSG has prepared more than 2200 storage sites and more than 57 million tons of storage capacity jointly with relevant units.




2. CCTV Finance and Economics: According to industry estimates, at present, there are about 300 million coffee consumers in China. With more and more coffee lovers, many well-known enterprises are actively arranging cross-border coffee tracks. Up to now, there are 166000 coffee related enterprises in China, with more than 22000 newly registered enterprises from January to September, a growth rate of 36.4%.




3. Reference message: Meta has several internal documents showing that Horizon Worlds, the flagship product of the meta universe for consumers, failed to achieve the performance expectations set internally. At first, Meta hoped that Horizon Worlds could achieve 500000 monthly active users by the end of 2022. However, the cruel real data is still less than 200000. Most people stayed at Horizon Worlds for a month and then did not return to the platform. Only 9% of the scene visits reached or exceeded 50 people, and most of the scenes were ignored.




4. Science and Technology Daily: According to a research published in the latest issue of Nature, researchers at Pennsylvania State University in the United States have developed a breakthrough technology to shorten the charging time of electric vehicle batteries to only 10 minutes, which is a record breaking combination between shorter charging time and longer driving mileage.




5. Indian Prime Minister Modi: 75 digital banking departments will be launched in India. People living in small towns and villages will find the benefits of transferring money and taking advantage of loans. The digital banking sector will make it easier for citizens to access banking services. These new digital sectors will increase the inclusiveness of India's financial system.




6. Interface news: The federal government of India plans to take over the highway with high traffic density from the local state government for 25 years and develop it into a highway with four to six lanes. After increasing the number of lanes, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India can charge more tolls, which will help recover the investment in 12 to 13 years.






important news




1. Zhongxin Jingwei: some netizens have found that Alipay can transfer money to wechat friends, but it is not a direct transfer. After inputting the amount, a two-dimensional code will be generated, and then you can scan the code on wechat / QQ to get it. If the other party gets it from his Alipay account, it will be automatically returned if he does not get it for more than 24 hours.






Insight Economics




1. Xinhua News Agency: At present, changes in the world, times and history are taking place in an unprecedented way. China firmly pursues an independent foreign policy of peace, adheres to the development of friendly cooperation with other countries on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and adheres to the basic state policy of opening up.




2. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunter: The financial policy formulated by the British government was too hasty, especially on issues such as large-scale tax cuts. The proposed fiscal policy was too 'blindly optimistic' about the future, and ignored the basic demands of ordinary people, which damaged the credibility of the government. It is 'not feasible' to use loans to finance tax cuts, and it is a mistake to lower taxes on the rich.






Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, at 7.1931, down 0.0042%, 1.3368% lower than that on September 30; The central parity rate of RMB was 7.1088, up 0.0183%, down 0.7551% from September 30.




2. New Third Board: Last week, two new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.407 billion, up 3.88% month on month. Up to now, there are 6650 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 66.218 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 192100 tons, with a total turnover of 11.1454 million yuan. The closing price on Friday was 58.00 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from September 30.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed 1.34% lower at 29634.83, up 1.15% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 3.08% lower at 10321.39, down 3.11% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 2.37% lower at 3583.07, down 1.55% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.12% higher at 6858.79, down 1.89% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 0.67% higher at 12437.81, up 1.34% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.9% higher at 5931.92, up 1.11% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX December gold futures closed 1.7% lower at US $1648.90 per ounce, down about 3.5% for the week.




7. Crude oil: On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for November closed down 3.93% at 85.61 USD/barrel, down 7.58% weekly; Brent crude oil contract for December fell 3.11% to 91.63 USD/barrel, down 6.42% for the week.




► Securities Times: Under the continuous hot new energy track, a new round of 'lithium king' competition has begun! Ganfeng Lithium, the leader of lithium mines, released a performance forecast. It is estimated that in the first three quarters of 2022, it will achieve a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan - 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 478.29% - 518.73%. The current 'lithium king' Tianqi Lithium also released a performance forecast a few days ago. It is estimated that the net profit in the first three quarters will be 15.2 billion yuan to 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 27 times. This time, the performance of Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium in the third quarter both increased significantly, which may lead to a new stage of the 'lithium king battle'. The downstream new energy vehicle market is hot, which not only provides strong support for the price of lithium resources, but also enables listed companies in the lithium battery industry chain to hand over dazzling 'report cards' in the first three quarters.




► Zhongtai Securities: Since this year, the price of upstream lithium resources has experienced a round of sharp rise. At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference, Ningde Times said that the prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, petroleum coke and other upstream materials for lithium batteries had risen sharply. There are two kinds of factors that stimulate the price of lithium ore: short-term and long-term. In the short term, the output of Qinghai Salt Lake has declined due to seasonal factors, and the impact of the epidemic on transportation has led to a tight supply of lithium resources. Downstream enterprises rushed to work at the end of the year and hoarded goods extensively, which also aggravated the supply shortage. In the long run, the rise in lithium price is due to the imbalance between supply and demand. It takes about 5 years to complete a lithium resource project, while downstream demand is increasing rapidly, and lithium's immediate capacity is not sufficient.


► Orient Securities: Q4 new capacity of global lithium resources is centralized. The survey was divided into six quarters of 22Q1-23Q2. On the time dimension, 2022Q1-Q3, the new capacity of global lithium resources was relatively small. Most of the new capacity was put into practice in 2022Q4, and the corresponding effective capacity was formed in 2023. At present, the market is worried about the sustainability of the high price of lithium salt. The planned lithium salt capacity was intensively put into use in the fourth quarter, resulting in a substantial increase in subsequent supply and a reversal of the supply and demand pattern. Although there are many projects planned to be put into production at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, looking back on history, the global lithium salt development projects are generally delayed. Even after the project is put into production, the release of output is also restricted by many factors, so the actual supply increment is probably less than the planned rate.




► Industrial Securities: At present, the demand for power batteries has exceeded 70%, while the sales growth of electric vehicles has turned to endogenous drive, with little dependence on policies. The demand for lithium salt in the future is expected to maintain a rapid growth; The supply release may not be as expected. We mentioned earlier that the lithium salt production capacity planning is the product of the optimistic expectation of the enterprise. At the same time, the project construction and output release are affected by multiple factors such as environmental impact assessment, epidemic situation, climate and labor; There is still room for the sector valuation to be improved. Even if the current sector valuation is viewed statically, there is still a certain gap between major leading companies at this stage and 2016-2018. Among them, the PB valuation of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium is basically at the lower level of the previous round of lithium bull market valuation. Considering that the lithium price is still in a steady upward period in the peak season, the current sector valuation has at least reflected a more cautious expectation. If the industry's supply and demand exceed the expectation, there is more room for its valuation repair.


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